Predictable Innovation | L.E.K. Consulting

Innovation shouldn’t feel like a gamble.

Yet for many companies, launching new products to market is full of high stakes and even higher failure rates — with up to 90% of launches falling short. But what if you could manage these risks systematically and shift the odds in your favor?

At L.E.K. Consulting, we’ve developed a proven approach that makes innovation more predictable. Drawing on decades of experience and a detailed analysis of over 100 projects, we’ve seen companies achieve combined peak annual sales of more than $25 billion on newly launched products by systematically managing risk – specifically innovation risk – and focusing their investments on high-potential opportunities. Our insights also show that most companies can eliminate many potential sources of failure, achieving success rates well above 50% and driving significant returns on their innovation spending.

Successful innovation isn’t just about launching something new — it’s about launching the right thing, in the right way. With careful planning, rigorous assessment and a clear path forward, companies can turn uncertainty into opportunity, transforming ambitious ideas into sustained growth.

How Predictable Innovation works

Our approach is shaped by years of real-world success guiding companies through the complexities of launching products and services in unpredictable markets. With a methodology that combines the agility of a start-up mindset and the rigor of strategic discipline, we provide a structured path to innovation that systematically reduces risk, focuses on high-impact ideas, and drives sustained growth. Each phase represents a key service we offer, designed to enhance the impact of every innovation investment:

Building future innovation capabilities
To convert promising ideas into real growth, companies need more than creativity — they need structure. By creating new business models, developing agile workflows, implementing consistent feedback loops and fostering a collaborative, cross-functional environment, businesses can create a robust foundation for sustainable innovation.
Defining and validating innovation opportunities
High-performing organizations identify and evaluate promising ideas using rigorous analysis, prioritizing those with the greatest potential for success. By narrowing the field through strategic validation, these companies maximize their resources and amplify returns on their innovation investments.
Accelerating monetization of new concepts
Developing a robust, early-stage business case and revenue forecast ensures a strong market entry. Through precise customer targeting, optimized pricing and careful channel planning, leading companies strategically position new products to make an immediate impact and build momentum.
Optimizing new product launches
A successful launch requires more than a great product; it demands thorough preparation. Effective organizations plan for every milestone, from initial placements to customer adoption, using data-driven tactics that ensure smooth market entry and lasting presence.
Creating long-term value
The innovation journey doesn’t end with the initial launch. Companies that thrive in innovation adopt long-term strategies, adjusting their approach and extending product value over time. Keeping momentum strong and refining strategy post-launch are essential to turning early wins into lasting success.

Turn your company’s best ideas into predictable winners

L.E.K. Consulting managing directors Stuart Jackson and Ilya Trakhtenberg have released a new book: Predictable Winners: A Handbook for Developing, Forecasting, and Launching New Products and Services (Stanford University Press, 2025) that provides a comprehensive guide and best practices for launching new products.